{"id":1875,"date":"2019-06-30T06:51:23","date_gmt":"2019-06-29T21:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/141.164.34.82\/?p=1875"},"modified":"2019-06-30T08:18:58","modified_gmt":"2019-06-29T23:18:58","slug":"%ed%95%ab-%ed%95%b8%eb%93%9c-%eb%85%bc%ec%9f%81-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/?p=1875","title":{"rendered":"\ud56b \ud578\ub4dc \ub17c\uc7c1 1"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>\ud56b \ud578\ub4dc\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0?<\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Vx1SdP2TYoI?start=627\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>&ldquo;\ub18d\uad6c\ud32c\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ub18d\uad6c \uc120\uc218\uac00 3\ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc29b\uc744 \uc131\uacf5\uc2dc\ud0a4\uba74 \uadf8 \uc120\uc218\uac00 hot hand\uc774\uae30\uc5d0 \ud3c9\uc18c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5\ub960\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud588\ub2e4.&rdquo;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud2b8\ubc84\uc2a4\ud0a4 \ub4f1\uc740 1985\ub144\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \ub17c\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \uc778\uc2dd\uc784\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \ub17c\ubb38\uc740 \ub0b4\uc6a9\ub9cc \ubd10\uc11c\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \ubb38\uc81c\ub420 \uac83\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5b4\ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ud2b9\uc815 \ub18d\uad6c \uae30\ub85d\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c, \ucc98\uc74c 3\ubc88 \uc131\uacf5 \uc2dc\ud0a8 \ud6c4\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\ud655\ub960\uacfc, \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \uc131\uacf5 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ube44\uad50\ud574 \ubcf4\uba74 \ub418\ub2c8\uae4c.<\/p>\n<p>\ubb3c\ub860 \ud45c\ubcf8 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc0dd\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uac80\uc815\ub825\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uac80\uc815\ub825\uc774 \ub108\ubb34 \uc791\ub2e4\uace0 \ube44\ud310\ud558\ub294 \ub17c\ubb38\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5ec\ub7ff \uc788\uace0, \ud2b8\ubc84\uc2a4\ud0a4\uc758 \ubc29\ubc95\ub860 \uc790\uccb4\uc5d0 \ubb38\uc81c\uc810\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud55c \ub17c\ubb38\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5b4\uca0b\ub4e0, \uc774 \ub17c\ubb38\uc774 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub294 1) \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud2c0\ub838\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5b4\uc11c, 2) \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub18d\uad6c \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 hot hand\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uacb0\ub860\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h2>\ud1b5\uacc4\uc758 \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \uc801\uc6a9<\/h2>\n<p>\uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \ub9d0\uc774\uc9c0, \uc774\uac74 \uc815\ub9d0 \uc6c3\uae34 \uc598\uae30\uc774\ub2e4.<br \/>\n\ub9c8\uce58 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc778\uc758 1%\ub3c4 \uc548\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc778\uc774\ub2e4\ub77c\ub294 \uc601\uac00\uc124\uc744 \uae30\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4\ub358\uc9c0, \ubb50 \uadf8\ub7f0 \ub9d0\ub3c4 \uc548\ub418\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc640 \ub2e4\ub97c \uac83\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h2>\uc815\ub2f9\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h2>\n<p>\uc774\ub807\uac8c \uc0dd\uac01\ud574\ubcf4\uc790.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5b4\ub5a4 \ub18d\uad6c \uc120\uc218\uc758 \uc29b \ud655\ub960\uc774 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960 \ub531 \ud558\ub098\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\uc740 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub0a0\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ucee8\ub514\uc158\uc774 \uc788\uace0, \uc8fc\ubcc0 \ud658\uacbd, \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4 \ub4f1\uc774 \ubcf5\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud574\uc11c \uadf8\ub0a0\uc758 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub807\ub2e4\uba74 \uadf8 \ub0a0 \uc29b\ud655\ub960\uc740 \ub2e8 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac00\uc815\uc744 \ud574\ubcf4\uc790(\uc774\uac83\ub3c4 \uc880 \uc6c3\uae34 \uc598\uae30\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc).<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub7fc \uadf8 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud655\ub960 \ubd84\ud3ec(\uc0ac\uc804\ubd84\ud3ec)\ub97c \ub744\uace0 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. <\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub54c \ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ub3d9\uc6d0\ud574\ubcf4\uba74, \ucc98\uc74c \uc29b \uc138 \uac1c\uac00 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac14\uc744 \ub54c, \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \uc0ac\ud6c4\ubd84\ud3ec\uc640 \ucc98\uc74c \uc29b \uc138 \uac1c \uc911 \ud558\ub098 \ub610\ub294 \ub450 \uac1c\ub97c \ub193\ucce4\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \uc0ac\ud6c4\ubd84\ud3ec\ub97c \ube44\uad50\ud574\ubcf4\uba74, \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud788 \ucc98\uc74c \uc29b \uc138 \uac1c\uac00 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac14\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \uc0ac\ud6c4 \ubd84\ud3ec \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \uc0ac\ud6c4 \ubd84\ud3ec \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\uac78 \uad73\uc774 \uc2e4\uc99d\uc744 \ud574\ubd10\uc57c\ud574? \ucc28\uc774\uc758 \ud06c\uae30\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud06c\ub0d0\ub294 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \uc0ac\uc804\ubd84\ud3ec \ubd84\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub807\ub2e4\uba74 \ucc98\uc74c \uc29b \uc138 \uac1c\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uac8c\uc784 \ub3c4\uc911\uc758 \uc29b\uc774\ub77c\uba74 \uc5b4\ub5a8\uae4c? <\/p>\n<p>\uc774\uac83\ub3c4 \ub9c8\ucc2c\uac00\uc9c0\uc774\ub2e4. \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc774 \uac8c\uc784 \ub3c4\uc911 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c4\ub2e4\uba74, \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud788 \uc29b\uc744 \uc138 \ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uc131\uacf5\ud588\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \ucd94\uc815\ub418\ub294 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uac12\uc774 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud06c\ub2e4. (\ubb3c\ub860 \uc138 \ubc88 \uc131\uacf5 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc2e4\uc218\ub97c \uc5f0\ubc1c\ud588\ub2e4\uba74 \ucd94\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \ud3c9\uc18c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc791\uc744 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5b4\uca0b\ub4e0 \uc774\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc544\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uadf8 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \ubd84\uc0b0\uacfc \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654 \uc18d\ub3c4 \ub4f1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.)<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc0dd\uac01\ud574\ubcf4\uba74 \uc6c3\uae30\ub2e4. \ub17c\ubb38\uc758 \uacb0\ub860\uc740 \uac01 \uc29b\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\ud655\ub960\uc740 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac74\ub370, \uac01 \uc29b\uc774 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc801\uc774\uace0, \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc774 \ub2e8 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \uac12\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc29b\uc744 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc131\uacf5\uc2dc\ucf30\uc744 \uc218\ub85d \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ubaa8\ud655\ub960\uc758 \uc0ac\ud6c4 \ubd84\ud3ec\uac00 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc6b0\uce21\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uac74 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub4ef\uc774 \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud558\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uac8c \uc774\uc0c1\ud55c \uac70\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uba74, \uadf8\uac74 \uac80\uc815\ub825\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\ub77c\ub358\uc9c0, \ud558\ub8e8 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud55c \uc120\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\ud655\ub960 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub358\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc694\uc778(\uc120\uc218\uc758 \uae34\uc7a5\/\uc778\uc2dd \ub4f1)\uc774 \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4\ub358\uc9c0\ub97c \ucc3e\uc544\ub0b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc\uac00? \uc124\ub9c8 \ud558\ub8e8\uc758 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ub2e8 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \ubaa8\uc218\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \uac74\uac00? (\uadf8\ub807\uac8c \uac00\uc815\ud558\uba74 \uadf8 \uac00\uc815\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ud558\ub8e8\ub3d9\uc548 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5\ub960\uc740 \ubcc0\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4!!??)<\/p>\n<h3>\uc8fc\uc758 \uc0ac\ud56d<\/h3>\n<p>\ud56b \ud578\ub4dc\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uc5ec\ub7ec \uac00\uc9c0 \uc815\uc758, \uc5ec\ub7ec \uac00\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uad6c\/\ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ub9ce\uc774 \ucc3e\uc544\ubcf4\uace0 \uc801\uc740 \uae00\uc740 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud639\uc2dc \uae00\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud558\uc5ec \uc774\uacac\/\uc758\uacac\/\uc0ac\uacac\uc744 \ub313\uae00\ub85c \uc801\uc5b4\uc8fc\uc2dc\uba74 \ucc38\uace0 \ub610\ub294 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ucc38\uace0 \ubb38\ud5cc<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hot_hand\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hot_hand<\/a> : \uc694\uc998\ub3c4 hot hand\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c \ub300\uc0c1\uc774\uba70, \uadf8 \uc2e4\uc7ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub17c\ub780\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks-74786\">Momentum isn\u2019t magic <U+2013> vindicating the hot hand with the mathematics of streaks<\/a> : 1985\ub144 \ub17c\ubb38\uc758 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ubd84\uc11d \ubc29\ubc95\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub97c \uc9c0\uc801\ud568.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\uc564\ub4dc\ub958 \uac94\ub9cc\uc758 \ube14\ub85c\uadf8<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu\/2018\/12\/14\/couple-thoughts-regarding-hot-hand-fallacy-argument\/\">A couple of thoughts regarding the hot hand fallacy fallacy<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu\/2017\/04\/02\/gilovich-doubles-hot-hand-denial\/\">Gilovich doubles down on hot hand denial<\/a> : \uac94\ub9cc\uc740 \ud55c \ub77c\ub514\uc624 \ud504\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub098\uc628 Gilovich\uac00 \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uc218\ub9ce\uc740 \ubc18\ubc15\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 85\ub144 \ub17c\ubb38 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc778\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ud589\ud0dc\ub97c \ube44\ub09c\ud568.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu\/2015\/07\/09\/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand\/\">Hey<U+2014>guess what? There really is a hot hand!<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\uc704\uc758 \ub3d9\uc601\uc0c1 \ucd9c\ucc98: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Vx1SdP2TYoI\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Vx1SdP2TYoI<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud56b \ud578\ub4dc\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0? &ldquo;\ub18d\uad6c\ud32c\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ub18d\uad6c \uc120\uc218\uac00 3\ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc29b\uc744 \uc131\uacf5\uc2dc\ud0a4\uba74 \uadf8 \uc120\uc218\uac00 hot hand\uc774\uae30\uc5d0 \ud3c9\uc18c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc29b \uc131\uacf5\ub960\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud588\ub2e4.&rdquo; \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud2b8\ubc84\uc2a4\ud0a4 \ub4f1\uc740 1985\ub144\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \ub17c\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \uc778\uc2dd\uc784\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub17c\ubb38\uc740 \ub0b4\uc6a9\ub9cc \ubd10\uc11c\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \ubb38\uc81c\ub420 \uac83\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5b4\ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ud2b9\uc815 \ub18d\uad6c \uae30\ub85d\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c, \ucc98\uc74c 3\ubc88 \uc131\uacf5 \uc2dc\ud0a8 \ud6c4\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\ud655\ub960\uacfc, \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \uc131\uacf5 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ube44\uad50\ud574 \ubcf4\uba74 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[146,319],"tags":[346,350,349],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/etc_hothand01.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1875"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1875"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1875\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1880,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1875\/revisions\/1880"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/ds.sumeun.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}